Insurance agents use algorithms and large body data bases to make decisions about what to charge you for car, health, and life insurance. No one in our industry does this kind of analysis.
We are all prone to say “I know what is risky and who to trust”. The truth is that we typically under value the cost of mitigation.
What is worse, we fail to identify the cause of the risk. We say things like, “There is something about the practice of crew B. They have more call backs than crew C.” If crew B required $1000 of repairs on only 10 jobs then the jobs they do should cost the business an additional $100 just to address known risk.
Unknown risk should be added in knowing that the probabilities of crew C having unknown future problems is higher. We all wear seat belts or own insurance, but we seldom believe in it until your oncology bill is $250,000 and you get to keep your house.